The Iran-Israel War might not be about bombs

Trump’s bunker bomb drop struck me as odd. Are these bombs really the coup de grâce for Israel’s attack on the Iranian nuclear program? The set-up and delivery feels more like reality show shocking revelation and cliffhanger. Now, Trump announces a cease-fire on social media like his next crypto meme coin. All this makes me wonder.

Points unseen

With all eyes focused on bunker busters, here are some points to consider, now passing unseen from misdirection and lack of imagination. I am no expert, just a person with a mind like grandma’s farmhouse attic, chock full of interesting things, in no particular order, that turn up while I unpack events today.

Israel has the bomb

Do not forget Israel has the bomb. Most people do.

Israeli governments for years have played a non-proliferation game saying they will not “introduce” nuclear weapons to the region. But they have them. In 1979, working with South Africans, another country surrounded by enemies, Israel got its test bang and was off. While the world did not know, governments figured it out. This is certainly a deciding factor in why Arab nations stopped invading Israel. The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation puts Israel’s arsenal at 90 weapons with plutonium on hand for upwards of 200 more, for delivery by missile or aircraft.

The Arab wars against Israel, back in the day, were inspired by grievance against western colonial powers as much as opposing Israel for its own sake. So, when these Arab nation-states with tanks, planes, artillery and troops invaded, Israel faced genuine existential threat. Lose against conventional armies and the whole river to sea project is very a real possibility. Post-bomb, however, and Israeli conventional wars are Israel invading, not defending. Attacks in Israel today are proxy wars with nation-states employing expendable assets, aka mostly Palestinians.

Mutually Unassured Destruction

While Israel would not chose a nuclear-armed Iran, it could be dealt with. The U.S. and Russia have not blown themselves up for decades. India and Pakistan, part of Israel’s nuclear acquisition cohort, have managed not to nuke each other in spite of deep animosities.

Bizarrely, the country with the least at stake facing a nuclear-armed Iran in the region is, arguably, Israel. It is Iran’s neighbors around the Gulf region who cannot use Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) to survive. And none of these other countries have the time and required resources to pull anything together any time soon. Everyone but Israel is out of luck from this perspective.

So the Gulf States and Iraq must greatly appreciate Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program. While 21 Arab and Muslim nations did release a condemnation of Israel’s actions, it only mentioned Israel 4 times, two were the title and a topic sentence. Mostly the document discussed de-escalation and anti-nuclear proliferation. All valid points, but hardly a full-throated condemnation of Israel, even considering diplomatic speak. The statement reads more like a “we need to say something” piece than anything else.

Regime sleight of hand

While Israel prefers to be the only bomb in town, there are other considerations.

The tangible contention between Israel and Iran are Hezbollah and Hamas, both Iranian proxies who have done real harm within Israel. These are groups that Israel rightfully wants gone. While neither are nation-states, they do act to secure territory for themselves. I have no insight into the realpolitik behind Iran’s support for these groups outside of keeping Israel off-balance and focused within, but they organize against Israel in a way unmatched by any outside country. And they certainly do not have to care about any nuclear retaliation.

Netanyahu’s governing coalition is no fan of any two-state solution. Rather there is ultimately more support within it for annexation. And, as miserable and oppressive as Hezbollah and Hamas are, they still can organize and extract a high cost, with Iranian support, if the government moved forward to annex and displace Palestinians.

So Israel’s press against Iran may have more to do with the occupied territories than any nuclear program. Israel may be using the nuclear program attack as cover to force regime change, or at least regime life-support, as it targets Iran’s ability to enforce domestic control. Push Iran so hard in negotiations that it backs off from their proxies to save its own dignity. And couching this all as an attack on a nuclear program gives everyone an exit strategy because the U.S. and Israel can declare victory and leave, then put serious behind-the-scenes screws to Iran during a cease-fire. If Israel had attacked Iran explicitly to stop it supporting Hezbollah and Hamas, well that does not have so clear a beginning and end, or good guys and bad.

So, the fight looks like its about nuclear arms, but it is likely, mostly, not.

No Nukes

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Face the Nation last weekend that Iran having all the components to pull together a nuclear weapon is justification enough to attack. But, there are about a dozen or so countries, depending on definition, who are on the nuclear threshold. From Canada to South Africa and Brazil to South Korea, many countries are paranuclear, able to gather enough fissile material for bombs and figure how to light the fuse. Trump’s Canada annexation fantasies aside, we are not bunker busting any other country at the moment.

No, attacking Iran’s nuclear program is more likely aimed at regime change. And everyone looking for this tipping point should remember the overthrow of Iran’s Prime Minister Mosaddegh in 1953. This brought decades of SAVAK torture under the Shah which, in 1979, resulted in the Iranian Revolution and the regime everyone opposes today. One never knows how these plans pan out.

Why Trump’s busters

Trump creates a bad cop, worse cop scenario. Iran’s retaliation options are limited. All the talk of sleeper cells in the U.S. means every bad thing, from forest fires to power outages, could be blamed on Iran. Just about anything Iran does against the U.S. carries the risk of fierce response. So Israel can keep hitting regime-change targets while Trump waits to drop another bag of hammers while having an easy on-off switch to exit. Not a good strategic place for Iran to be.

Now Trump does not do this for love of Israel. He loves the money and flattery right-wing pro-Netanyahu donors give. He appreciates the unconditional love from all his Christian Evangelicals followers who celebrate Middle East conflict because war will bring Jesus back. And, Trump does harbor Nobel Peace Prize delusions of negotiating some big beautiful deal, starting with his Truth Social cease-fire announcement. He’s probably already dreaming of bashing Obama in his Oslo acceptance speech.

But no, from all we know of Trump, his true concern, what got him into this, is the beachfront property—the land development—this is why he cares.

Or as Trump himself said on Oct 8, 2024 “[Gaza] could be better than Monaco,” Trump replied. “It has the best location in the Middle East, the best water, the best everything.” Trump lies most of the time, but sometimes he is very literal and blunt. This quote is from before his election, prior to any war, so who knows what conversations went on before he re-entered office. If someone looks hard enough Trump might already control some parcels in Gaza. If not, he surely expects to be gifted parcels as time moves on. Trump 2.0 wants his Monaco 2.0

Why say this

This is no defense of anyone involved. Iran and its proxies are no force for good and their presence in the occupied territories, while not an existential threat, are a constant, present danger to Israelis and Palestinians alike. Nor do I presume to have special insight—I would not be surprised if everything I said crashes into the unfolding events or collapses under expert commentary.

What I cannot stand is how easily so many people accept the definition of the situation a government puts forward. In any discussion of this war, it is assumed a nuclear Iran will nuke Israel, even as everyone knows full well that Israel has its own nuclear weapons and a well-developed ability to intercept missiles. There is pervasive bias as media and the public take in this war story. That, somehow, the radical Muslim Iran is incapable of understanding MAD, even as Muslim Pakistan has been sane for decades against India. So we have breathless coverage of stopping Iran’s program without any honest assessments. I do not want Iran to have nuclear weapons becasue I do not want anyone to have nuclear weapons. It takes a comprehensive view of the real world in real time without illusion to best manage the genie. Otherwise, a pretense for war may just drive Iran deeper undergroud with all the equipment Trump so kindly told them should be moved—and who knows what will come of it. As Sun Tzu said, “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”

Maybe it is only concern in Israel over Iranian weapons that drives this attack and everything is straightforward. But If no one discusses anything outside of Privilege’s carefully packaged “reality,” our world will never change for the good. Progressives must always question assumptions, demand evidence, remember history and, above all, never lie to ourselves.