Lame Duck Trump can't get third term

Since Trump is “not joking” about a third term, I looked up the 22nd amendment text to refresh my memory. Wikipedia, of course, came up first. The amendment text on top is plainly written, unless you are a teen trying to talk theselves out of trouble. Then, while scrolling down just to see what else was there, presto—the cryptic 3rd term plan! Right there on Wikipedia with all the gory details.

I suppose Trump may consider repealing the amendment, but that is hard. Or hope the election goes to the House that could select him, which is unlikely. Maybe something with electors, but that did not work last time. No, what is truly kicking around in his head is a real West Wing fan fiction episode plan. Trump blows up the GOP convention and tosses any primary results for a special ticket. Trump runs for vice-president with someone loyal and expendable running for president. The ticket is elected, the expendable resigns, and Trump is president again. Since he was not “elected” president as in the amendment’s text, it works out to a third term.1 A bit like Putin and Medvedev swapping president and prime minister jobs at the tail end of Russia’s democratic pretenses.

… does anyone believe Trump trusts another person enough to resign instead of keeping the Resolute desk for themself?

Forget about the constitutionality and all the court fights in states over names on ballots under the 12th or 22nd amendments. The electorate would see the gaffe and need to love Trump or fear Democrats so much that they overlook how squirrellv the campaign is. Trump could not convincingly fake being a vice-presidential candidate. No way could he speak fawningly about the expendable guy’s incoming administration. He would be at rallies saying, “you know who is really going to be president.” Trump would expect the expendible to say the same thing. I trust Americans would find this a bridge too far for weird. Besides, does anyone believe Trump trusts another person enough be elected president then resign, instead of keeping the Resolute desk for themselves? Certainly not J.D. Vance—he would be studying swatches for new oval office curtains between campaign stops.

It’s the lame duck

The real driver of third term talk is the lame duck problem. As term-limit Trump flies our economy like Flight 93, congressional candidates start caluclating differently. Political ambition and fears for survival assert themselves in electeds and they start falling out of line. “Trump will be gone, but I want to stay.” A diminishing return in falling on one’s sword for a waining MAGA becomes apparent. Then there is all the pent-up presidential ambition in the GOP assertively jostling for position. However, the slightest plausibile possibility of a Trump thrid term postpones any insurrections.

Trump does want a third term, that cannot be denied. Any despot knows the most difficult part of riding a tiger is the dismount, so he would prefer to never leave office. But asserting the idea so soon in the administration is more about keeping the back bench in line than anything else. With a tariff-collapsed economy and exploding social security, life will be difficult.