Trump's Deplorable Moment

I have never seen a politician so unmoored from political reality than Trump has been over Jeffrey Epstein and his files.

Last week, I thought it was only white guys on social media who were upset, and they would all quickly settle once reminded who, exactly, the cash cow is. I still believe the “Epstein files” were little more than what is already in the public record. So, to avoid looking stupid for releasing files well below the hype, Trump opted to change the subject. The new development is, when even his trusty hoax maneuver failed to kill the story in the faithful, Trump became so unhinged, he broke MAGA character.

“Some stupid Republicans and foolish Republicans fall into the net, and so they try and do the Democrats’ work,” Trump said. — The Hill 7/16/25

Trump’s social media posts say Republicans are stupid, foolish, and weak if they have Epstein concerns—AND that he no longer wants their support. Right there, in the now-gilded Oval Office, Trump says his own supporters are too stupid, foolish, and weak to understand reality. And, above all the horrible policy and incompetent leadership this administration will visit upon our country, calling his base stupid may be the path to MAGA undoing.

How so? Let us take the Wayback Machine to September 9, 2016, when in a fundraiser speech, Hillary Clinton declared half of Trump’s supporters “deplorable.”

Deploribility

In pre-deplorable 2016, the Clinton campaign tasked consultant Diane Hessan to understand undecided voters in swing states. Over that summer, she recruited 250 such voters to send her weekly diaries on their electoral views. This is her description of when these voters turned against Hillary Clinton, from the Boston Globe.

There was one moment when I saw more undecided voters shift to Trump than any other, when it all changed, when voters began to speak differently about their choice. It wasn’t FBI Director James Comey, Part One or Part Two; it wasn’t Benghazi or the e-mails . . . . No, the conversation shifted the most during the weekend of Sept. 9, after Clinton said, “You can put half of Trump supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables.” All hell broke loose.

Before this, Hessan described people who oscillated between the candidates’ negatives. They had discarded extreme views about Trump and Clinton and were unmoved by actors, like the NRA, pumping ads into their states. Undecided voters were just staring at the menu, trying to choose between roasted or fried chicken. Until that one deplorable moment. Hessan reports a diarist saying:

George told me that his neighborhood was outraged, that many of his hard-working, church-going, family-loving friends resented being called that name. He told me that he looked up the word in the dictionary, and that it meant something so bad that there is no hope, like the aftermath of a tsunami. You know, he said, Clinton ended up being the biggest bully of them all. Whereas Trump bullied her, she bullied Wilkes-Barre.

And that was it. To a progressive voter, steeped in policy, this was a ludicrous reason to choose Trump. After all, there was a lack of context—in the same speech, Clinton spoke directly about those who felt unheard, such as these undecided voters in swing states. But for these voters, the quote was a tangible and meaningful revelation. Considering Hillary Clinton always had a sketchy connection with voters due to her not standing by her man nor baking cookies reputation, the quote sealed her fate. Most of these voters went for Trump, because, for all his obvious flaws, he appreciated them for who they were. Clinton judged them unworthy.

Tangibility

Policy is abstract. Extremes are unlikely. Promises are never present-tense. Most voters only consider politics around election times, and their decisions are based on vibes, as the Gen Z say. Without a clear compass, Hessan’s undecideds vacillated until hitting something real to them. Clinton’s speech was not a policy or promise, but a simple declaration that half of Trump’s supporters were unfit human beings. Undecided voters heard that their Trump-supporting neighbors, friends, and family were deemed unworthy by her. This revelation connected with her existing negatives, drove undecideds to Trump, and may well have cost her the election.

Trump’s career thrives in vagueness. He makes broad claims without detail, so voters just put whatever specifics onto him they choose. And they assume limitations on the worst behaviors because no one would really act like that. This past week, the one time Trump does not get exactly what he wants from his base, he drops them. Trump became Clinton specific. Stupid. Foolish. Weak. This personal attack is a betrayal of the key reason MAGA voters support Trump—he gets me and would never talk down to me.

Reality

What will change? With presidential term limits, Trump could set fire to a mountain of red hats, then piss on the ashes because he got his last term and no longer needs MAGA. But Epsgate is a problem Trump has never faced—a near-invulnerable story. Epstein is a true-crime podcast that out reality-shows the Trump administration. Too many open questions. Too much taboo. Vast amounts of sex and money. All wrapped up in mystery. And Trump made it an unstoppable golem by saying anyone who thinks about it is foolish, weak and stupid. Every reporter doing an Epstein story now, inevitably, will include Trump’s dismissal of his base which will appear daily for the foreseeable future across the news outlets MAGA consumes.

This will drain his political capital and may signal MAGA’s decline as supporters fade away in anger and disappointment. Disillusioned voters may stay home and this would help Democrats in the midterms. But Trump, baring a swollen ankle death, will remain for his full term, because impeachment is near-impossible and the 25th Amendment will not apply. He could take a serious rejection by just golfing and not caring. Or, he can actively seek retribution against the entire country for rejecting him.

My sense is this will resolve into an even more transactional administration where legislators will demand more for votes and cabinet secretaries will gain greater autonomy if Trump’s ability to threaten is weakened. We will all endure an administration with even less restrained graft, in-fighting, and more MAGA than thou behavior, if Trump’s ability to put a bit of stick about fades.

Empathy

Hessan’s conclusion fits us as well today as then.

If you had asked me to describe a Trump voter last spring, I would have been largely wrong about their motivations, dreams, and even their values. Sure, there are extremists among them, but it was eye-opening to realize how legitimate the concerns of many are, and to realize that, if I just listened hard, I would find that I have more in common with the Georges of the world that I could ever have imagined. Empathy — trying to understand others as deeply as possible — is an important first step . . . .

Clinton’s, and now possibly Trump’s, political transgression reveals an important truth. Progressives must learn everyone is not like us and that is okay. We are more alike than different, but most voters are vibe voters and there is little to do about it except not judge, but listen. Because voters who are not us are actually listening very carefully to what we say about them.