Hedgehogs and Foxes Cover Election 2025

Pundits are bad bets

An election night is a good time to remind everyone of Philip Tetlock’s expert opinion research from 2005. Over two decades, he analyzed 82,361 predictions by 284 pundits. Even the clear subject-matter experts with PhDs were little different from an informed neighbor—or a coin flip. Tetlock did find that the more famous the pundit, the worse the predictions. It turns out news programs prefer confidence and confrontation over accuracy. Surprise.

Tetlock put forward a continuum from Hedgehog commentators to Foxes. Hedgehogs had one big idea they used to explain everything—think trickle-down economics or immigration policy. Hedgehogs make predictions to fit their single idea, using it to explain everything. If you only have a hammer, every problem is a nail. Foxes, contrariwise, borrow from many disciplines and perspectives, are intellectually flexible and skeptical, and can improvise in ways Hedgehogs cannot. Over time, Hedgehogs keep returning to their core principles, while Foxes incorporate new information, change their minds, and move on.

Still, Foxes barely outperform Hedgehogs. A Fox’s evidence-based, eclectic style may appeal to progressives, but their predictions still consistently disappoint. Admiring them does not make them reliable.

Pundits are a problem

This is not to say a pundit cannot have an interesting insight or useful observation. But tonight, be wary of the emerging pundit election narrative: the New York mayor’s election definitely is Armageddon, or the Virginia governor’s race proves Democrats must be centrists. There are seldom grand national lessons in an off-year election, where the party in power almost always loses ground. The only interesting events are the occasional surprises—or when a serious wave develops. But once news panels move from covering events to speculating on them, the problems begin. Pundits forge their “story” for what happened, which the Hedgehogs and Foxes then comment on over and over again, defining the situation away from what truly matters.

The Real Goal

Talk to neighbors. Get your kid to vote. Find what people truly care about by talking to them, and then help connect them to candidates who will make a difference for them. Be the person neighbors talk to when those sample ballots come in the mail. This is what is important. Being cliché does not make this wrong: all politics are local—never at a cable-news desk.