Buy the Libertarians, Elon

Post-breakup Elon Musk plans to lash out at former beau Trump through a third party. Understandable. Trump did the same thing in 2021, floating a “Patriot Party” to lock down Senate Republicans votes against impeachment and keep the entire party in line. This “Patriot Party” is why Kevin McCarthy made a pilgrimage to Mar-A-Lago right after Trump left office. A Trump third party would have seriously wounded Republicans by draining votes and throwing competitive elections to the Democratic Party.

But third parties, outside of a Trump, are tricky to figure. Did Ralph Nader cost Gore the election—probably. Same goes for Jill Stein and Clinton—likely. However, there are always questions. Would a Green Party voter vote with no Green Party candidate on the ballot? Do we really know how these voters would break if choosing between two parties, instead of three?

The Hot Wing theory of political choice

To better understand the third-party problem, picture three kinds of chicken wings on a restaurant

menu: Mild, Medium, and Hot. Everyone chooses, say 40% Hot, 40% Mild and 20% Medium. Now one day, Medium is off the menu—what will these diners do? Conventional wisdom says they move to Mild. But who knows? Some diners could say the hell with caution and get Hot. Or they could opt for mozzarella sticks. Who really knows?

Crashing Tesla, exploding SpaceX and falling from Trumpian grace, Musk does not appear to be up to complicated tasks. His problem is that all these state barriers mean many moving parts—even getting a ballot line for a few states is a substantial project.

So no one, including Elon Musk, should believe his new third party would definitively hurt Republicans. It could help the GOP or just be a wash between the parties. There are Democrat-ish voters who would love a bro-party as much as any disaffected Republican who would throw in with Musk. A 2021 Trump effort would have had the throw-weight to upset House and Senate races. But for just Elon—it is too dicey. No one loves him much anymore. So the resulting “party” would have a less-than-predictable effect on any election.

GOP and Dems agree—no third parties

Beyond all this, Musk likely does not understand how incredibly difficult it is to form and sustain a third party in the United States. Democrats and Republicans may not agree on much, but they do agree on keeping third parties out of the election cycle. Take a look at this quick outline of the ballot access requirements in the 10 most populated states.

All states are variations on this theme of high bar entry. They all make it difficult to grow a new party. If they do not come out swinging and keep swinging, they die quickly. With no pathways for new parties to grow in smaller-than-statewide increments, without fusion tickets and ranked choice voting to demonstrate statewide support, every state force voters to Sophie’s Choice their ballot on a small party, or not. In total, the ballot line game is rigged.

Managerially-challenged

Crashing Tesla, exploding SpaceX and falling from Trumpian grace, Musk does not appear to be up to complicated tasks. His problem is that all these state barriers mean many moving parts—even getting a ballot line for a few states is a substantial project. Musk, shockingly, failed to look and just leapt into an effort without knowing the resources required. He lacks the grassroots of a Donald Trump, or even a Ross Perot. to do the legwork. The only solution is to throw a lot of money at it and astroturf the entire thing, making many consultants very happy. The America Party is possible, but ultimately will fail due to the crushing weight of maintenance.

Libertarians—laissez-faire capitalism with pot and ketamine. Elon can appreciate that.

Buy Libertarians like Tesla

Libertarians are a third party that has mastered one weird hack to stay on state ballots. Their presidential and gubernatorial candidates often do well enough to carry them for another state election cycle. If they do not get enough statewide votes, it is back to petitions. Currently they are up in every state except New York. And they have all the necessary Federal Election Commission documents set up for House and Senate races.

Consider that Elon Musk did not found Tesla or Twitter, he paid money to run them in his image. The practical solution to his spat with Trump is to hijack the Libertarian Party and turn it to his own designs. For as much as Democrats complain about Greens, just think of the close elections when a Democrat squeaked by after a few percentage points went Libertarian. Now many are more expert than I who could dispute this, but I cannot recall an election with a losing competitive Democrat and a well-performing Libertarian.

So there you are Elon, a party ready for your cuckoo egg drop to murder nest-mates and take over. Libertarians have offices, phones, mailing lists, websites and more—it is turnkey. I could not say exactly how to do it, but it is small and, odds are, its state and local conventions are easy takeover targets with a quick rush of new members who just signed up online.

Why suggest this

Why not. Elon Musk is sketchy. Libertarians are sketchy too, propped up by all sorts of older crazy money. If Musk wants to spend his money to hurt Trump and MAGA and, along the way, crash an ethically-challenged party as he did Twitter, I might as well suggest the plan. Musk will not take my proposal to heart however, because he wants his own show. But, if he was the genius too many people think he is, taking the Libertarian Party is what he would do.